As a new administration takes office in 2025, several new energy policy trends are expected to emerge, reflecting the inherent tension that often exists between political desires and economic realities. For example, while the incoming Trump administration has expressed a desire to claw back subsidies made available under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Republican states have also been significant beneficiaries under the IRA. In other areas such as import tariffs, bipartisan support could emerge, with each party supporting the same result for entirely different reasons. Five trends that could result are discussed below.

1. Carbon-Related Tariffs Could Reshape Global Trade and Business Strategy. The convergence of increased bipartisan support for import tariffs, albeit for different reasons, could result in a significant shift in international trade dynamics and potential costs for energy companies. President-elect Donald Trump has frequently expressed support for import tariffs as a tool to boost domestic manufacturing, increase revenues, or to create leverage for international negotiations. Democrats have supported adoption of carbon tariffs and mechanisms like the Carbon Border Price Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) that is being implemented in the European Union to level the playing field for businesses investing in emissions reduction. Adoption of the European Union’s CBAM has created new operational challenges for companies throughout the world, and similar measures in the United States would add to that already complex legal and business landscape. Companies invested in renewable energy projects or reliant on imported components like solar panels and batteries should ensure transparency and awareness of their supply chains, monitor ongoing developments, and prepare for potential cost increases and supply chain disruptions.
   
2. IRA Tax Credit Future Critical for Energy Investment Decisions. While Trump has expressed opposition to the IRA, the established tax credits present a complex economic and political challenge. Republican-controlled states have been significant beneficiaries of investments generated by IRA tax credits, and many traditional energy companies have already made substantial investments based on these incentives, particularly in energy production and carbon sequestration projects. This creates significant economic pressure to maintain existing credits. However, uncertainty looms over funds yet to be distributed by the government, as well as details of future Internal Revenue Service guidance on IRA tax credits. This creates the potential to impact short- and mid-term investment decisions and may create a temporary chilling effect on new investments as stakeholders await additional clarity on implementation guidelines. Companies should closely monitor these developments, particularly those with pending applications or planning future projects dependent on IRA incentives.
   
3. Support for Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit Requires a Balancing of Interests. The clean hydrogen market has experienced record investment growth, catalyzed by the IRA’s tax credits. Many of these investments are being made by traditional energy companies. However, uncertainty remains over whether and to what extent the IRS will adopt stringent requirements advocated by many environmental organizations. These would require the renewable electricity to be produced from newly constructed generation (additionality), in the same hour as hydrogen is produced (temporal matching), and in the same region as hydrogen is produced (geographic matching). How the IRS resolves these issues could have a material impact on future green hydrogen investments. Here, the Trump administration will again be confronted by tension between its more general desire to claw back IRA incentives and the economic reality of significant investment to date along with support by traditional energy companies for continued future investments and increased financial certainty. This balancing of interests may result in adoption of technology neutral policies that are intended to reduce barriers to entry and increase economic certainty for investors.
   
4. Carbon Sequestration Gains Momentum Across Political Spectrum. Carbon sequestration offers traditional energy companies and carbon emitters a rare point of bipartisan consensus in energy policy, offering traditional energy companies a pathway to sustainability while maintaining core operations. With former North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, a prominent carbon capture and storage (CCS) advocate, announced as Trump’s nominee to lead the Interior Department, the technology could see expanded support. Carbon sequestration appeals to many environmental advocates seeking emissions reductions and to fossil fuel companies seeking to leverage their existing expertise in pipeline construction and drilling to create new opportunities in a transitioning energy market. This dual benefit of maintaining energy security while reducing carbon footprint positions CCS as a critical component in the energy transition landscape and will continue to attract support from both environmental advocates and traditional energy producers in 2025.
   
5. Renewed Support for Conventional Energy Production. A significant transformation in federal energy policy is anticipated in 2025, with renewed support for conventional energy development, including through expanded availability of federal oil leases, reduced regulation, and reconsideration of regulations that have been adopted to increase the cost of fossil fuel energy production. The Bureau of Land Management’s current restrictions on coal mining are expected to be reversed, while federal leasing for oil, uranium, and other mineral resources is likely to accelerate. This shift extends beyond mere leasing policies, however, as the Department of Justice will likely adopt a more industry-friendly stance overall. For example, enforcement of environmental regulations, particularly regarding methane emissions and associated royalty payments, is likely to become less stringent. These changes could substantially reduce operational costs for natural gas producers and other conventional energy operators, potentially stimulating increased domestic energy production.